PitchMetric Blog
Weekly gameweek surprises -- the biggest gaps between what PitchMetric predicted and what actually happened -- plus our Deep Research series: periodic, methodologically serious dives into the questions behind the numbers, using real data and real held-out testing.
Gameweek 1's Biggest Fantasy Surprises
Five players who blew past PitchMetric's predicted points in the season's opening round — and why a Gameweek 1 model has almost nothing to go on.
Gameweek 2's Biggest Fantasy Surprises
A Bruno Fernandes hat-trick headlines the round, but the more interesting story is what changed in the model's own inputs one gameweek in.
Can We Predict a Player's Market Value — and Does It Actually Tell You Anything About Fantasy Points?
We built and tested three different forecasting approaches on real Transfermarkt data, plus a blended model of our own. Here's what actually predicts a player's price — and what it means for your squad.
Does Blending In Price and Squad Depth Actually Improve Our Predictions?
We shipped an update that leans on a player’s price and squad standing when their own track record is thin. Then we backtested it against a full season, gameweek by gameweek, and held players out entirely to check we weren’t just fitting noise. One idea didn’t survive contact with the data — here’s what we found, and what we reverted before it really shipped.
Gameweek 3's Biggest Fantasy Surprises
Two of this week's five biggest surprises came from the exact same match — one from each side. The first surprise post built entirely on our updated model.
Gameweek 4's Biggest Fantasy Surprises — and Disappointments
A five-goal Brighton rout, a Palace collapse, and a Leeds win that put GW3's biggest miss back on top of the list — this time from the other side. All ten GW4 matches now final.
Gameweek 5's Biggest Fantasy Surprises — and Disappointments
A Brian Brobbey hat-trick in a 5-3 defeat, a Man City win that put one player in our top two and two defenders in our bottom five, and Bruno Fernandes's GW2 hat-trick still inflating a prediction he keeps missing.
Gameweek 6's Biggest Fantasy Surprises — and Disappointments
A Jordan Henderson brace from a midfielder who hadn't played until last week, 12 points from 34 minutes of Jérémy Doku, and a bottom five in which every player had already had a double-digit week earlier in the season.